A look into the crystal ball at what's to come in season 2000, the dawn of a new era. With the competition reduced to 14 teams, it's almost impossible to pick a winner in what will be the most even competition in years.
It's been said a hundred times already, but season 2000 will be the closest, most even Rugby League premiership in years. After a decade which always had a standout and a blowout, picking an obvious champion, and even an obvious wooden spooner is nigh on impossible. And once again, the Broncos will be right in the thick of it.
The Broncos Line-Up
Brisbane can boast the biggest loss of any club in the competition after 1999. Captain Allan Langer, club veteran Andrew Gee, exciting centre star Steve Renouf, forward hard man Peter Ryan and utility genius John Plath all departed during and after 1999, leaving the Broncos with the biggest holes to plug of any club in the competition.
That would pose a problem to most other sides, and while coach Wayne Bennett concedes this season's priority is rebuilding, the Broncos have once again found outstanding replacements. Ben Walker, Brad Meyers, Chris Walker, Shaun Berrigan, Lote Tuqiri and Dane Carlaw come readymade from the Broncos stable, while astute recruitments Ben Ikin and Harvey Howard add new life to their positions. The return of prodigal son Kerrod Walters is another boost.
There are obvious strengths in the Broncos squad. Fullback Darren Lockyer, secondrowers Gorden Tallis and Brad Thorn, prop Shane Webcke, winger Wendell Sailor and the ever improving Ben Walker at halfback. They form a solid nucleus mixed with some mesmerising talent.
While veteran winger Michael Hancock and captain and five-eighth Kevin Walters struggled for form in 1999, their experience is a godsend for the Broncos when so many youngsters are coming through and need the guidance of an old hand. Both have plenty to offer, and Walters in particular has a point to prove after last season's debacle.
The unsung heroes of the Broncos are without doubt lock Kevin Campion, centre or winger Michael Devere and talented prop Petero Civoniceva. Campion is a non-stop tackler, racking up 50 tackles in one game last year, while Devere doesn't have the same explosive natural ability that Sailor and Lockyer possess, but is blessed with the best attitude of any player in the club, and what he loses in natural ability he makes up for with sheer dedication.
Civoniceva's worth to the club is shown no better than by his season end last year. During the clash against Auckland, Civoniceva broke his arm in the first half. With the Broncos under siege, he played on, contributing to a lucky escape that kept the club alive in the premiership race. After the game his arm was considerably damaged and he was out for the rest of the season. It's that sort of courage that will get the team over the line in the tight games that are certain to come.
Hooker Luke Priddis took a while to get accustomed with the Broncos' style of play, but once he did he became an integral member of the side. He has undeniable talent, but needs the pressure of a competitor for his spot to keep him motivated. Last year, Phil Lee seemed to fall from grace after a strong 1998, and as such Priddis had a monopoly on the number 9 jersey. Enter Kerrod Walters. The former Bronco champion and Test and Origin representative is in the club and has declared he will settle for nothing less than a first grade berth. Early trial form before an injury suggested he was well on the way to achieving that, especially with Priddis' average performance in his only trial game.
Ben Ikin is a wonderful aquisition for the club. A player of immense talent who can cover centre, five-eighth, fullback, wing or even hooker, Ikin would like to forget season 1999 and move on. Ikin was, by his own admission, terrible for North Sydney last year, suffering from homesickness and internal club conflicts. 2000 is a chance for redemption, and he has been training the house down and is desperate to impress his new coach, team and supporters.
Last year's rookies will play a similar role this year, filling in when needed and keeping the momentum going. Shaun Berrigan, Lote Tuqiri, Shane Walker, Chris Walker and Dane Carlaw will get regular callups. Berrigan and Tuqiri were revelations last year, while Shane came of age playing at halfback. Chris showed great promise in the centres. Carlaw played but a handful of games, however he will get greater exposure to the rigours of first grade football this season.
The likely first grade lineup for the Round 1 clash against the new merger Wests Tigers at Campbelltown will look something like this:
1. Darren Lockyer
2. Michael Hancock
3. Mick Devere
4. Ben Ikin
5. Wendell Sailor
6. Kevin Walters (c)
7. Ben Walker
8. Shane Webcke
9. Luke Priddis
10. Petero Civoniceva
11. Gorden Tallis
12. Brad Thorn
13. Kevin Campion
14. Tonie Carroll
15. Phil Lee
16. Shane Walker
17. Lote Tuqiri
18. Harvey Howard
19. Shaun Berrigan
A powerful lineup by any means, and one which will be very competitive in 2000 against some very stiff opposition.
The Competition
With the mergers of Norths-Manly and Wests-Balmain and the departure of South Sydney, the remaining clubs had plenty of talent to choose from to bolster their squads. Harvey Howard and Ben Ikin were benefits for the Broncos, but other clubs shored themselves up as well. North Queensland gained the services of Julian O'Neill, Tim Brasher and Jason Nicol from Souths, while Sydney City picked up 1999 sensation Craig Wing.
Each of the 14 teams in the competition have a great chance of making the finals, an no fewer than 10 have a realistic hope of winning the whole thing. Here's how I see the final places going after the 26 premiership rounds.
The Finalists
1. Cronulla: Well coached, disciplined, young and basically unchanged from the 1999 side that clinched the minor premiership. The Sharks have a solid forward pack and a very quick and talented backline. All they're missing is a champion halfback, and that is one reason why they will once again fall short at finals time. However, during the season proper, they will be hard to beat. Final place: 5th.
2. St George-Illawarra: They will lose a bit with the losses of Paul McGregor, Rod Wishart and Mark Coyne, however they still have an incredibly talented side. With Anthony Mundine and Trent Barrett running the show from the halves, there's no reason why they can't match their 1999 Grand Final appearance. Final place: 2nd.
3. Brisbane: They might be rebuilding, but just run your eyes over the first grade lineup - Lockyer, Sailor, Tallis, Ikin, Webcke, Thorn - it reads like a State of Origin side. If Ben Walker continues his improvement and Kevin Walters returns to his glory days, there's no reason why the Broncos can't finish well inside the top 4. It might get tight at finals time however, with a number of players who haven't yet experienced the pressure of finals football. Final place: 3rd.
4. Newcastle: Last year they lacked forward strength. They've bolstered that in 2000 with David Fairleigh and Ben Kennedy outstanding buys. If the Johns brothers stay fit, they can do anything. This could well be the year of the Knight, and their first real premiership. Final place: 1st.
5. Auckland: They will be the big improvers in 2000. They've recruited well, and they're ready to build on their extremely impressive finish to 1999. Mark Tookey adds go-forward might in the forward pack, and match that with their flamboyant Kiwi backrow and they're going to prove very tough to beat. Inexperience at finals time will cost them. Final place: 6th.
6. Melbourne: No team can lose Glenn Lazarus and Tawera Nikau and expect to cruise to a second successive premiership. The World Club Champions will take time to adjust, but they have an astute coach and a powerful feeder club, so it would be crazy to count them out. Final place: 4th.
7. Canterbury: Seem to have been treading water in the offseason, more intent on helping Souths at any stage rather than helping themselves. A champion halfback in Ricky Stuart, but a real dearth of a quality five-eighth to provide the impetus in attack. They'll struggle. Final place: 7th.
8. Parramatta: Jarrod McCracken and Dean Pay provided the mongrel that opposition packs feared. Those losses will prove impossible to overcome, and the Eels look likely to barely scrape into the finals. Michael Vella has a huge weight on his shoulders, carrying the front row burden the co-captains left behind. Final place: 8th.
The Challengers
9. Northern Eagles: Combining the best of Norths and Manly is always going to provide a strong proposition. The Eagles are an unknown quantity, and with mixed trial form it's difficult to gauge just how competitive they will be. Lack of combination troubled St George-Illawarra early in 1999, and that plague will surely trouble the Eagles, and the other merger Wests Tigers.
10. Penrith: The Panthers are a real enigma. They have an incredibly talented lineup, including arguably the best centre in the game at the moment in Ryan Girdler, yet they always find themselves struggling with injuries and thus miss out on the big games at the end of the year. If they stay fit they will pressure the top 8, however they have the potential to fall as low as 14th if their injury count comes back to haunt them again.
11. Wests Tigers: Parramatta's loss is the Tigers gain with Jarrod McCracken providing much needed mongrel in their forward pack. The Tigers' backs are also very strong and a big first up win over fellow new chums Northern Eagles suggests they will be a force. However, like the Eagles, they will struggle with consistency and will just miss the finals.
12. North Queensland: A lot of offseason spending, but unlike previous years, it seems to be quality rather than quantity. Julian O'Neill, Tim Brasher, Robert Relf, Jason Nicol, Jeremy Schloss - a lot of talent of genuine first grade standard. With Paul Green due to have a big year, the Cowboys could well provide a large of upsets in season 2000, as they almost did against the Broncos in their first trial.
13. Canberra: The Raiders are an incredibly hard team to predict. They have incredible talent in their midst, but are capable of some of the most unbelievably poor performances. They don't look to have gained much on last season, where they struggled to finish just outside the 8. There's no easy games this year and despite champion Laurie Daley's presence, it's difficult to see them being a threat.
14. Sydney Roosters: Huge call, I know. However, look at the Roosters' recruitment. In the offseason they lost a number of forwards and when it came to finals time last year, it was forwards they were lacking. In their place they've signed halfbacks, five-eighths, centres and wingers. Forwards win games, especially in competitions as even as this. The Roosters will pay for that this year, despite the excellent coaching of Graeme Murray.
So there you have it. My opinion on the shape of the competition in 2000. During the season of course there is the ANZAC Test, and the State of Origin series. Both of those are too hard to judge without knowing the makeup of the sides, so I will leave that to another feature!
Roll on 2000...I can't wait!
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